Major Academy Awards Nominations Predictions

The nominations for the 86th Annual Academy Awards will be announced on Thursday January 16 at 5:30am PST.  Before that happens, I thought I would give my predictions as to who will get nominated and who will not make the cut for the major awards (Picture, Director, Acting).

Best Picture (Trailers for each included)

This has been a loaded year for film.  The Academy made a choice a few years ago to allow up to 10 films to be nominated in this category (last year there were only 9).  While a good idea, it does create nominations that, while great movies don't deserve to be a Best Picture nominee.  Some standouts in that category that shouldn't have been there recently were Toy Story 3, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moneyball, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  While all great films, none would have come within a whiff of a nomination in previous years with only 5 nominees.  That being said, this year, going into December, seemed like a two film race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.  It is reminiscent to me of 2010 when it came down to Avatar or The Hurt Locker.  One is a big budget technical masterpiece, and the other a moving historical drama.  I would have said it would have come to those two again, but then along came American Hustle.  Also a historical drama (though classified as a comedy at the Golden Globes), this movie has going for it a much greater broad entertainment value that 12 Years a Slave doesn't have.  So that means we have three locks for Best Picture:

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. American Hustle

That leaves a slew of movies vying for 7 additional spots.  The fact that this year was so strong means a lot of great movies will be left out here.  Of the rest of the contenders (for nominations - since I believe no other film has a shot at winning), I believe Philomena is probably the one with the most current momentum.  When all is said and done the other films there will be:

4. Philomena

5. Captain Phillips

6. Nebraska

7. Her

8. Dallas Buyers Club

9. Saving Mr. Banks (saved by the ultra conservative older voters)

10. The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director

This seems like a pretty straightforward list here.  There are three locks and then two long shots who will get nominations and a whole lot of people who will be on the outside looking in there.  Very simply the five who will be nominated here are:

1. Alfono Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
4. Spike Jonze (Her)
5. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

I say that with a lot of confidence, but in reality this category is all over the map most years.  Fortunately Spielberg did nothing this year so I don't have to worry about him being nominated again.  While I feel this should be more straight forward, after Ben Affleck didn't even get a nomination for his amazing directorial work in Argo (last year's Best Picture winner), it is hard to say who will be nominated.

Best Actor

After his win at the Golden Globes, I would say Leonardo DiCaprio is a lock here for a nomination but I was hesitant on whether Wolf of Wall Street would get a Best Picture nomination.  It is so raunchy that it might turn off some of the older voters.  That might also keep DiCaprio from a nomination.  The obvious locks here are Chiwetel Ejiofor and Golden Globe winner Matthew McConaughey.  Past that, I have no idea where to go from there.   I think American Hustle's momentum will carry Christian Bale to a nod, but I don't think he stands a chance at winning.  Here are my predictions:

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
4. Christian Bale (American Hustle)
5. Robert Redford (All is Lost)

I think Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks and Captain Phillips), Leonardo DiCaprio, Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Hugh Jackman (Prisoners) and Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) along with others would all be locks for nominations in another year, but this category is just way too loaded and all of them will fall just short.

Best Actress

After she beat out favorite Sandra Bullock at the Golden Globes, Cate Blanchett immediately made this a two woman race.  They are locks for nods here and rightfully so.  Judi Dench also seems to be a good choice here.  Unfortunately the Academy frowns on comedies, especially romatic comedies, so Julia Louis-Dreyfuss will miss out on a nomination here.  It should look something like this:

1. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
2. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
3. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
4. Judi Dench (Philomena)
5. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

An interesting thing about this.  Should Amy Adams go on to win this award, it will be the first time a director has directed back to back roles to win the same Oscar after Jennifer Lawrence won this last year.

Best Supporting Actor

As far as I can tell this category has four legitimate entries and one person who will feel lucky to be at the ceremony.  It is the fifth one that seems the hardest to predict.  Jonah Hill did better work in The Wolf of Wall Street than in his Oscar nominated role in Moneyball, but again, that is a very raunchy movie and I believe that will hurt him.  Daniel Bruhl got nominated for his work in Rush and is probably the most deserving of an Oscar nomination.  It is a hard one to judge.  When the nominations come out it will look like this:

1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
4. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
5. Harrison Ford (42) - a pick brought on by the older crowd wanting to crown a great career

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence won at the Golden Globes and I believe will win again.  I also believe, when all is said and done with her career she will have more Oscar trophies than Meryl Streep.  Lupita Nyong'o is her biggest competition here.  This seems to be a more or less weak category without a lot of great roles here.  It will probably shake out like this:

1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
2. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Golden Globe Predictions - All Categories

Who will win, and who should win.  So here are my predictions for all categories of the Golden Globe Awards which air tonight:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

This is a pretty easy category to pick.  12 Years a Slave has seemed the prohibitive favorite for most major best picture awards for a while.  I feel that Rush has no chance here.  While Captain Phillips, to me, was the better film, I don't believe that it has the momentum needed to pull the upset here, and I think Gravity has lost a lot of the early momentum it had.  Captain Phillips should win, but 12 Years a Slave will win.

Best Motion Picture - Comedy

No questions here whatsoever.  American Hustle was the best film of the year far and away.  It should win and it will win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

This is a hugely loaded category.  All 5 of these performances were incredible this year.  Idris Elba, unfortunately is probably the biggest long shot to win here.  He just has no steam and Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom seems to have missed out everywhere else.  I think overall this is to me a two man race between Chiwetel Ejiofor for his work in 12 Years a Slave, and Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club.  I think Robert Redford has a better shot in the Academy Awards than here when the voters tend to not take risks as much.  McConaughey is definitely the edgy pick and gave one of the best performances of the year.  I believe he should win, but I believe Ejiofor will win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Sandra Bullock had this and the Oscar wrapped up from opening night of Gravity.  She gave one of the most transcendent performances of her illustrious career.  She should win and she will win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy

Normally I would have said that Joaquin Pheonix would have this as a lock for his amazing work in Her.  No man can pull off the emotionally emotionless like he can.  He baffles me every time he does and he is one of the best actors alive.  Unfortunately for him and Bruce Dern, who also gave an amazing performance in Nebraska, American Hustle was classified as a comedy (which I believe was a mis-classification but all is well).  Because of that Christian Bale is far and away the favorite here.  He was amazing in his role as a scum bag, small time, con artist.  He should win and he will win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy

I loved the movie Enough Said and I was glad to see Julia Louis-Dreyfuss get nominated there.  Unfortunately, romantic comedies don't always play well with awards people, so I believe she doesn't have a huge shot.  It's sad though since I believe she deserves this.  However, again American Hustle has all the momentum in the world and I believe this will be its night.  Julia Louis-Dreyfuss should win, but I believe Amy Adams will win for American Hustle.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

This is an absolutely loaded category.  Outside of Daniel Bruhl for Rush, I believe there are four men here who could legitimately win this award and I would have no argument with any of them.  Of those four I believe my favorite performance was from Barkhad Abdi for his work as a Somali pirate in Captain Phillips.  However, the best performance by far was from Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club and that is what the award is for.  However, the Hollywood Foreign Press has been known to give love to foreign actors more often than, say, the Academy does.  I believe Jared Leto should win this award, but I am going with the long shot Abdi to win it in the upset.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Jennifer Lawrence is quickly becoming Hollywood's golden girl.  She is whip smart, funny, and not afraid to speak her mind.  Not to mention her performance in American Hustle may have been better than her Oscar winning work in Silver Linings Playbook.  No one else stands a chance here in my opinion.  Lawrence should win and she will win.

Best Director - Motion Picture

With the exception of the man I believe should have won this award, Spike Jonze for Her, I believe the door is open for Alfonso Cuaron.  More than the Academy, the Hollywood Foreign Press awards innovation and Cuaron has created one of the most visually striking and innovative films in years.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) or David O. Russell (American Hustle) come up and snatch the award but I believe when all is said and done Cuaron should win and he will win.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

Every movie in this category has a shot but I think when all is said and done this is a two horse race between 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle.  I think the dark horse though is Her which could pull an upset, but I think that's a slim chance.  After the Oscar win for Django Unchained last year, the door is open for 12 Years a Slave to pull it off.  However I think, again, the momentum for American Hustle is too great here.  On top of that, it is probably the better choice.  I think American Hustle should win, and it will win.

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

Here is where All is Lost will make its mark.  That movie was great for many reasons, but it was driven by its amazing music, as done by Alex Ebert.  If anything will make the upset it will be movie music legend John Williams for his score to The Book Thief.  I don't think it will have enough to pull it off though.  Alex Ebert should win and he will win.

Best Animated Film

No discussion needed here.  Frozen should win and will win.

Best Television Series - Drama

Breaking Bad was the best show on television this past year, and may go down and the best series of all time.  No other show should have a chance of winning here, but the only one that might is Downton Abbey which could get some love for being a foreign product, which always impresses the Hollywood Foreign Press.  I don't think it will gain enough traction to pull it off though.  Breaking Bad should win and it will win.

Best Television Series - Comedy

First year show Brooklyn Nine-Nine is an amazingly funny show.  However it will still fall short to classics Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory.  Girls seems to be another show that gets a lot of traction, but I just do not believe it can compete here.  When all is said and done though I believe The Big Bang Theory should win, but Modern Family will win.

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Everyone here is playing catch up to Behind the Candelabra which seems to be the favorite after sweeping everything at the Emmy's.  I however believe this past season of American Horror Story was better.  American Horror Story should win, but Behind the Candelabra will win.

Best Actor in a Television Series - Drama

Walter White is the most haunting character in television and that has to do entirely with Bryan Cranston.  On top of that, this is a very weak category with the omission of both Jon Hamm (Mad Men) and Timothy Olyphant (Justified).  Cranston should win and he will win.

Best Actress in a Television Series - Drama

This is another fairly weak category since it was a fairly weak year for actresses in television.  The two favorites here, to me, never even appeared on television.  I believe Orange is the New Black and House of Cards were both great and Taylor Schilling and Robin Wright respectively gave amazing performances.  I think this is a two horse race between the two, but when all is said and done Taylor Schilling should win, but Robin Wright will win.

Best Actor in a Television Series - Comedy

It seems rare now a days that network television would have three actors favored over cable, but sitcoms just seem to be better on networks now.  Jim Parsons is definitely my favorite and I have made no bones about the fact that The Big Bang Theory is my favorite comedy on television, and he is a large part of that.  He has won this award once and the equivalent Emmy three times, but don't be surprised to see Michael J. Fox pull this off.  He is gaining a lot of momentum and is the sentimental favorite which can sometimes play a big role.  When the night is over Parsons should win, but Fox will win.

Best Actress in a Television Series - Comedy

This race it seems comes down to Edie Falco and Julia Louis Dreyfuss.  Falco has said herself that she doesn't believe her show (as great as Nurse Jackie is) to be a comedy so I don't know why we're putting her here.  I also don't believe Dreyfuss to be that funny in VEEP.  The funniest, and best, performance in this list comes from Zooey Deschanel for New Girl, but I feel like she is a huge long shot to win this award.  When all is said and done Deschanel should win, but Dreyfuss will win.

Best Actor in a Mini-Series or Made for Television Movie

This will, surprisingly, come down to two actors from the same movie.  Matt Damon and Michael Douglas seem to be in a fight for first for their work as lovers in Behind the Candelabra.  I think Douglas is probably the one who will win when all is said and done, though either would be a solid choice.

Best Actress in a Mini-Series or Made for Television Movie

This is a hard category to predict.  There seems to be no prohibitive favorite here.  I feel like the safe choice for this award would be Helen Mirren who did great work in the HBO film Phil Specor, though the best choice will probably be Jessica Lange for American Horror Story.  I am going to say that Lange should win, but at the end of the night, they will go with the safer choice and Helen Mirren will win.

Best Supporting Actor in Television

I would love to see Aaron Paul get the ultimate love here.  He didn't play as large a part in the last of Breaking Bad but probably did some of his best work in this last season overall.  He was amazing from beginning until his very last scene driving away screaming in exuberance.  Look for the possibility of Rob Lowe to pull the upset here, however I think that is a long shot.  Aaron Paul should win, and if there is justice in the world, he will win.

Best Supporting Actress in Television

In a fairly weak category look for awards favorite Modern Family to pull out another, and rightfully so.  Sophia Vergara is hilarious as the Colombian trophy wife to Ed O'Neill.  She should win, and she will win.

Best Movies of 2013

So I made my last post of my picks for the worst movies of the year a little while ago, but wanted to finish out the year with some strong late season additions before creating my list of the best movies of they year.  This was an incredibly strong year for movies and a few of the movies on my list will have gone mostly overlooked.  If you haven't seen some of these, I recommend them all very highly.  You will see themes of actors showing up in multiple entries here and there is a reason for that.  Many movies are driven by great actors and this year proved to me that people like Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, Matthew McConaughey, Jennifer Lawrence, and others are among the best in the business.  For the year of 2013, I am doing the best 13 films of the year.  And here they are:

13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

I enjoyed the first Hunger Games movie enough to buy it the first day it was out on DVD.  I am captivated by the intense, although at times, sickening story behind this saga.  In this installment though, we see a much better film, mostly due to two things: a greater budget, and better acting.  The budget for this film was twice the first, and that created a much better visual setup which made it much more enjoyable to watch.  On top of that, we have better acting from Jennifer Lawrence and an amazing supporting role from the great Phillip Seymour Hoffman.  I also loved the roles from Woody Harrelson and Elizabeth Banks again in this.

12. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Not everyone will agree with me on this pick.  I originally didn't know what I thought about this film upon my first viewing but after seeing it a second time, and really digesting it, this was a great film.  Great acting and directing work here from Ben Stiller, and amazing supporting work from Kristen Wiig, and a great cameo from the great Sean Penn.  While I believe Adam Scott was a tad under-utilized in this movie, I still richly enjoyed this beautiful, layered film.

11. Nebraska

Bruce Dern here caps off a 5 decade career with what might be one of his best performances ever.  He is just superb as a borderline alcoholic who believes he's won a sweepstakes prize and goes with his estranged son to Nebraska to claim it.  Along the way we have a tale of reconciliation and family that is still tugging at my heart.  Alexander Payne, the director, made a superb choice of filming this in black and white that made it even more hauntingly beautiful.

10. Mud

This is one of the most overlooked films of the year.  It is also the most universally acclaimed movies of the year with a 98% critic approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Matthew McConaughey gives a moving performance as the title character, a fugitive trying to find his true love.  This movie reminded me why McConaughey became a movie star in the first place.  We also get great supporting work here from Reese Witherspoon, and surprisingly natural work from newcomer Tye Sheridan.

9. Dallas Buyers Club

With performances in movies like Amistad, A Time to Kill, Killer Joe, and The Lincoln Lawyer to his credit, it is surprising that Matthew McConaughey has never received a major awards nomination before this year, but he has already received a Golden Globe nomination for his role in Dallas Buyers Club, and don't be surprised if an Oscar isn't far behind.  His performance as a homophobic man who is diagnosed HIV positive is layered, deep, emotional, and haunting.  It is one of the best performances of the year, and I believe he should be the front runner for both the Golden Globe and Academy Award here.  This is a great film and we get amazing supporting work from Jared Leto, another who should be an awards favorite for this work.

8. The Place Beyond The Pines

This is another movie that was severely overlooked.  It is a three act film in which each act follows a different line but all connects in a way that creates one of the best pieces of story telling I have seen in years.  The first two acts of this film are driven by great performances by Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling.  Ryan Gosling owns this movie as a down on his luck stunt driver who takes to severe methods to take care of his family.  Eva Mendes also does fantastic work in this film, and Ray Liotta reminds us why no one else on earth should ever play a dirty cop but him.  It is gritty and hard to watch at times, but it is a beautiful film.

7. All is Lost

Robert Redford only has one acting Oscar nomination to his name (for one of my all time favorite movies, The Sting) but here he gives an amazing performance as a man lost at sea with almost no hope of survival.  This movie has very little dialogue and Robert Redford is the only character, which, like Cast Away, means I was worried about it.  (I was not a huge fan of Cast Away.)  But this movie blew me away.  Robert Redford is nearly a dead lock in my opinion to receive an Oscar nomination for his work here, and it is that performance that drives this film to true greatness.

6. 12 Years A Slave

In my original review for this movie, I said that I was in tears at this movie, and for good reason.  This is a gripping tale of a free man that gets trapped in hell as he is sold into slavery.  Powered by rich performances from great actors like Chiwetel Ejiofor and Michael Fassbender, and unflinching directing from Steve McQueen this movie seems to be the favorite for Best Picture.  I would have no argument with that.  It is a deeply moving, emotionally disturbing film, that still rings with importance in a world full of hate and discrimination.

5. Captain Phillips

Tom Hanks is fantastic in this movie, and he will more than likely get an Oscar nod to go with his Golden Globe nomination for this film, but I am of the opinion that Barkhad Abdi is the driving force of this movie.  This is the true story of an American cargo ship overtaken by Somali pirates.  Abdi gives one of the best supporting performances I have seen in years as the leader of the Somali pirates.  This movie is intense, gripping, and superb from beginning to end.

4. Gravity

This is easily the most visually striking movie of the year.  Alfonso Cuaron creates the most visually advanced movie for its time since probably The Matrix was released nearly 15 years ago.  This movie is also powered by a great performance by Sandra Bullock, who does even better work than she did in her Oscar winning work in The Blind Side a few years ago.  She has seemed a lock to win every major Best Actress award since the movie's release a few months ago, and rightfully so.

3. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Nelson Mandela is my personal hero, and I have always admired what he has stood for throughout his life.  Here we have a great bio pic starring Idris Elba, in what may be the best role of his career.  He, almost as well as Morgan Freeman did in Invictus, captures the quiet dignity and intensity of one of the world's greatest leaders.  This movie is aptly timed as we lost Mr. Mandela this year as well, covering from his early life all the way to his election as president of South Africa.

2. Out of the Furnace

Christian Bale gives a great performance in this gritty, intense, and sometimes violent movie about family and the need to look out for one another.  This movie achieves true greatness on all levels.  The performances from Bale and Casey Affleck as brothers are captivating and these two have true chemistry.  Woody Harrelson gives his most disturbing and menacing performance since Natural Born Killers, and proves, once again, why he is one of the best character actors alive today.  This is a haunting film that I was digesting days after originally seeing it.

1. American Hustle

When I was making this list, there was no question what my number 1 movie would end up being.  This movie was amazing, and David O Russell has a third masterpiece film in a row after The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook.  Christian Bale cemented his stand as the best actor of his generation (knocking off Leonardo DiCaprio who I used to believe that was and is now number three behind Bale and Bradley Cooper).  I will be fairly shocked if this movie does not garner Oscar nominations in all four acting categories with Bale for Best Actor, Amy Adams for Best Actress, Cooper for Best Supporting Actor, and Jennifer Lawrence as Best Supporting Actress.  I think Bale and Lawrence are the most likely to take home trophies come Golden Globe and Oscar night though.  I cannot say enough about this film.  The performances are captivating, the music is inspired, and the direction and writing is great.  I also did not see the twist at the end of this film coming.  Hands down the best film of the year.

So there is my list.  I know y'all have other ideas of what you think were the best movies.  Let me know what movies should have made my list.  I know this was a strong year for movies which is why things like Fruitvale Station, Inside Llewn Davis, August: Osage County, Saving Mr. Banks, and others couldn't make the list but let me know what you think.