Best Picture (Trailers for each included)
This has been a loaded year for film. The Academy made a choice a few years ago to allow up to 10 films to be nominated in this category (last year there were only 9). While a good idea, it does create nominations that, while great movies don't deserve to be a Best Picture nominee. Some standouts in that category that shouldn't have been there recently were Toy Story 3, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moneyball, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. While all great films, none would have come within a whiff of a nomination in previous years with only 5 nominees. That being said, this year, going into December, seemed like a two film race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. It is reminiscent to me of 2010 when it came down to Avatar or The Hurt Locker. One is a big budget technical masterpiece, and the other a moving historical drama. I would have said it would have come to those two again, but then along came American Hustle. Also a historical drama (though classified as a comedy at the Golden Globes), this movie has going for it a much greater broad entertainment value that 12 Years a Slave doesn't have. So that means we have three locks for Best Picture:
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
That leaves a slew of movies vying for 7 additional spots. The fact that this year was so strong means a lot of great movies will be left out here. Of the rest of the contenders (for nominations - since I believe no other film has a shot at winning), I believe Philomena is probably the one with the most current momentum. When all is said and done the other films there will be:
4. Philomena
5. Captain Phillips
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Saving Mr. Banks (saved by the ultra conservative older voters)
10. The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Director
This seems like a pretty straightforward list here. There are three locks and then two long shots who will get nominations and a whole lot of people who will be on the outside looking in there. Very simply the five who will be nominated here are:
1. Alfono Cuaron (Gravity)
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
4. Spike Jonze (Her)
5. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
I say that with a lot of confidence, but in reality this category is all over the map most years. Fortunately Spielberg did nothing this year so I don't have to worry about him being nominated again. While I feel this should be more straight forward, after Ben Affleck didn't even get a nomination for his amazing directorial work in Argo (last year's Best Picture winner), it is hard to say who will be nominated.
Best Actor
After his win at the Golden Globes, I would say Leonardo DiCaprio is a lock here for a nomination but I was hesitant on whether Wolf of Wall Street would get a Best Picture nomination. It is so raunchy that it might turn off some of the older voters. That might also keep DiCaprio from a nomination. The obvious locks here are Chiwetel Ejiofor and Golden Globe winner Matthew McConaughey. Past that, I have no idea where to go from there. I think American Hustle's momentum will carry Christian Bale to a nod, but I don't think he stands a chance at winning. Here are my predictions:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
3. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
4. Christian Bale (American Hustle)
5. Robert Redford (All is Lost)
I think Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks and Captain Phillips), Leonardo DiCaprio, Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Hugh Jackman (Prisoners) and Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) along with others would all be locks for nominations in another year, but this category is just way too loaded and all of them will fall just short.
Best Actress
After she beat out favorite Sandra Bullock at the Golden Globes, Cate Blanchett immediately made this a two woman race. They are locks for nods here and rightfully so. Judi Dench also seems to be a good choice here. Unfortunately the Academy frowns on comedies, especially romatic comedies, so Julia Louis-Dreyfuss will miss out on a nomination here. It should look something like this:
1. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
2. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
3. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
4. Judi Dench (Philomena)
5. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
An interesting thing about this. Should Amy Adams go on to win this award, it will be the first time a director has directed back to back roles to win the same Oscar after Jennifer Lawrence won this last year.
Best Supporting Actor
As far as I can tell this category has four legitimate entries and one person who will feel lucky to be at the ceremony. It is the fifth one that seems the hardest to predict. Jonah Hill did better work in The Wolf of Wall Street than in his Oscar nominated role in Moneyball, but again, that is a very raunchy movie and I believe that will hurt him. Daniel Bruhl got nominated for his work in Rush and is probably the most deserving of an Oscar nomination. It is a hard one to judge. When the nominations come out it will look like this:
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
3. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
4. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
5. Harrison Ford (42) - a pick brought on by the older crowd wanting to crown a great career
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence won at the Golden Globes and I believe will win again. I also believe, when all is said and done with her career she will have more Oscar trophies than Meryl Streep. Lupita Nyong'o is her biggest competition here. This seems to be a more or less weak category without a lot of great roles here. It will probably shake out like this:
1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
2. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
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